Bankroll Turnover Calculator
A 3% edge sounds small — until you compound it 52 times a year. See why turning over your bankroll crushes buy-and-hold.
Bankroll Turnover
Avg return per bet
Avg time to resolution
Bet size (% of bankroll)
Starting bankroll
2.0% edge × 365 turns $1,000.00 → $1,244.75
Your profit
$244.75
S&P 500
$100.00
+$144.75 more than buy & hold — 2.4x the profit
Why Turnover Matters More Than Edge
Most people compare betting to stocks by looking at return per bet. “I only make 3% per trade, the S&P does 10% a year.” But that ignores the single most powerful variable in investing: how often you can reinvest your capital. Stocks compound once a year. A bettor who averages 7-day resolution times compounds 52 times. That 3% edge isn't competing with 10% — it's (1.03)^52 = 364%.
What Is Bankroll Turnover?
Bankroll turnover measures how many times you recycle your capital through bets in a period. If you have a $1,000 bankroll and place a total of $12,000 in bets during the year, your turnover is 12x. The higher the turnover, the more times your edge compounds. This is why professional bettors and prediction market traders focus as much on finding high-frequency opportunities as they do on finding high-edge ones.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter your starting bankroll
- Enter your expected edge per bet (or switch to Entry/Exit mode and enter contract prices)
- Enter how many times you turn over your bankroll per year
- See your compounded annual return vs. a buy-and-hold benchmark
Worked Example
You start with a $5,000 bankroll. Your average prediction market trade resolves in 10 days with a 2.5% return after fees. That's 36.5 turnovers per year. Compounded: (1.025)^36.5 = $12,260 at year-end — a 145% annual return on a seemingly modest 2.5% per-trade edge. Compare that to buying the S&P 500 at 10% annually: your $5,000 becomes $5,500. Turnover is why even small edges in fast-resolving markets can dramatically outperform traditional investing.
The Turnover Compounding Table
| Edge/Bet | 12x/yr | 26x/yr | 52x/yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | 12.7% | 29.5% | 67.8% |
| 2% | 26.8% | 67.3% | 180% |
| 3% | 42.6% | 116% | 364% |
| 5% | 79.6% | 256% | 1,164% |
These numbers assume full bankroll reinvestment and a consistent edge — both optimistic assumptions. In practice, use fractional Kelly sizing via our Kelly Criterion Calculator to determine how much of your bankroll to deploy per bet. The table illustrates the principle: turnover frequency is the multiplier that makes small edges powerful.
Common Questions
Can I really compound my bankroll 52 times a year?
If your average bet resolves in 7 days and you reinvest immediately, yes. The key assumptions are: (1) you maintain a consistent edge, (2) you can always find bets to place, and (3) you reinvest your full bankroll. In practice, most traders won't hit perfect turnover — but even 30 turns/year with a 3% edge produces ~143% ROI, far above buy-and-hold.
Why does turnover frequency matter so much?
Compounding is exponential. Going from 26 turnovers/year (biweekly) to 52 (weekly) doesn't double your return — it squares it. At 3% per bet: 26 turns = 116% ROI, 52 turns = 364%. The math rewards speed of capital redeployment above almost everything else.
What's a realistic edge for prediction markets?
Sharp prediction market traders typically average 1-5% return per position after fees. The edge comes from superior information, faster reaction to news, or finding mispriced contracts across platforms. Even a 1% edge with fast turnover (3-5 day avg) produces extraordinary annualized returns.
How do platform fees affect this?
Switch to Entry/Exit mode and select your platform. The calculator deducts fees from your per-bet return before compounding. For example, buying at 60¢ on Polymarket Global yields a 66.7% gross return on a YES resolution — but after the 2% fee on winnings, it's 65.3%. That small difference compounds significantly over many turnovers.
What is bankroll turnover?
Bankroll turnover is how many times you cycle your entire bankroll through bets in a given period. If your bankroll is $1,000 and you place $1,000 in total wagers per week, that's 1x weekly turnover or 52x annual turnover. Higher turnover means your edge compounds more frequently, leading to exponentially higher returns.
How does this apply to prediction markets vs sports betting?
Prediction markets often have faster turnover than sports betting. Sports events resolve in hours (games) to months (futures). Many prediction market contracts resolve in days to weeks (economic data, policy decisions), allowing faster capital recycling. This speed advantage is why prediction markets can generate superior risk-adjusted returns even with a smaller per-bet edge.